Research

Year three of this bull market was a strong one. After a bit of a slow start — the S&P 500 rose 21.4% during the first year of this bull compared with the average first-year gain near 40% — year two was a catch-up year with a 32.2% gain vs. a second-year average of 12.4%. Then in year three, a year that had produced an average gain of only 5.2% historically, the S&P 500 rallied 16.1% (through October 8, 2025, before Friday’s sell-off). As noted in the “After a Strong Third Year, This Bull is Ahead of Schedule” chart, the nearly 89% gain in the S&P 500 since this bull market began on October 12, 2022 (excluding dividends), is well ahead of the average and median three-year advances for all bull markets since 1950.

Earnings season is usually predictable quarter to quarter in the absence of economic inflection points.

U.S. equity markets have bucked the weak September seasonality trend (thus far) and rallied to fresh highs this month, with the S&P 500 holding onto a 2.8% monthly gain as of September 26.

At its September meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25%, marking the first rate reduction of the year after eight months of holding steady.

While much has (rightfully) been made of the ongoing debt and deficit spending here in the U.S., the fiscal positions of major developed economies reveal profound disparities in debt management and long-term trend sustainability. Mounting government obligations could have significant implications on economic stability and monetary policy flexibility if not remedied.