Research

Productivity growth is the key mechanism that allows the U.S. economy to expand above its long‑run trend without reigniting inflation.

Policy dynamics ranging from robust central‑bank gold purchases to evolving trade and geopolitical strategies significantly influenced price action across the metals landscape. Together with structural supply shortages and rising industrial demand, these factors have created a powerful backdrop that continues to shape market volatility and performance. In this week’s Weekly Market Commentary, we explore the drivers behind the strength in metals, the associated risks, and the outlook for the durability of the rally.

Fourth quarter earnings season unofficially kicks off this week with a dozen banks and asset managers in the S&P 500 slated to report.

With 2025 behind us, it’s a good time to celebrate some of our better forecasts from last year while also reviewing some misses we can learn from. In our view, we got more right than wrong last year, but there were some misses among our tactical asset allocation recommendations. For the second straight year, as the bull market marched on, the most impactful decision we made was probably to recommend investors stay fully invested in equities at benchmark levels throughout the entire year despite elevated valuations.

Our 2026 fixed income outlook calls for a rangebound rate environment, cautious Fed policy, and a modest increase in spreads within corporate credit markets.