Research

The municipal bond market faced significant volatility in April, driven by spillovers from a turbulent Treasury market. Treasury yields were pressured higher by rising inflation expectations; the Federal Reserve’s cautious policy stance, reduced foreign demand; hedge fund deleveraging, portfolio shifts toward cash, and structural illiquidity.

The softer tone toward China from the White House, President Trump’s pledge not to fire Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome (Jay) Powell, and renewed optimism about Fed rate cuts all helped drive a strong market rebound last week.

With little visibility into where tariff rates shake out and the effects on earnings, it’s hard to have much conviction in a year-end S&P 500 target. Given the high degree of uncertainty, we use scenarios and a wider range to get more comfortable with our target and to increase our odds of accuracy (though we recognize these targets are more art than science).

This week was one of the most volatile weeks in the history of the stock market. That excludes the historic two-day decline on Thursday and Friday the week before (April 3–4). The S&P 500 dropped 1.6% on Tuesday, April 8, surged 9.5% on Wednesday, April 9 (the third biggest up day since 1950), fell 3.5% on Thursday, April 10, and jumped 1.8% on Friday, April 11. The S&P 500 ended up nearly 6% for the week.

Markets got quite a surprise from the Trump administration last week in the form of tariffs above even the most aggressive forecasts, increasing the risks to economic growth and corporate profits.