Weekly Market Commentary

A Closer Look at Commercial Real Estate | Weekly Market Commentary | April 17, 2023

The commercial real estate (CRE) market has recently captured the spotlight after being flagged as the next potential shoe to drop following last month’s banking turmoil. While rising rates have weighed on financing costs and the recent bank failures will make lending more restrictive, the postpandemic world has produced structural changes that will likely weigh on the sector, especially within the retail and office segments. Banks, especially smaller cap regionals, are most exposed to CRE if credit cracks continue to widen.

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Earnings Preview-Malaise Continues | Weekly Market Commentary | April 10, 2023

First quarter earnings season kicks off this week with some big banks reporting toward the end of the week. In some ways this quarter’s earnings season will probably be déjà vu all over again— earnings declines and cautious guidance, reductions in estimates, but better than feared. However, tightened financial conditions in the wake of last month’s banking turmoil and building evidence for a slowing economy has changed the economic backdrop this quarter. It will be interesting to see how management teams react to these latest developments.

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Who is Right, Fed or Markets? | Weekly Market Commentary | April 3, 2023

Financial markets and the Federal Reserve are reading from two different playbooks. Who is right? The markets are pricing in several rate cuts by the end of this year, while the Federal Reserve communicated more rate hikes with an expectation of holding rates up throughout the balance of 2023. We think that markets have it right, but several factors need to play out for this outcome to prevail. If growth stalls and inflation materially slows, the Fed could cut yet keep real rates positive. Read more below for our reasoning and for what it means for your investments.

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The 36-Hour SVB Collapse and Hierarchy of Blame | Weekly Market Commentary | March 27, 2023

A lot has changed in the past few weeks, both in terms of expectations for interest rates and lost confidence in the health of the banking system as a result of the sharp rise in interest rates that has led to some things “breaking,” as we wrote about here last week. Here we share some thoughts on who’s to blame for the ongoing banking crisis and reiterate how we are telling investors to adjust, or not adjust, their asset allocations in light of ongoing market volatility.

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Latest Equity Asset Alocation Views | Weekly Market Commentary | March 13, 2023

Coming into the week, it was all about Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony and the February jobs report. Instead, we got a shockingly fast collapse of a financial institution with over $200 billion in assets, which turned the market’s focus toward the stability of the banking system and what systemic risks banks might be facing. This commentary is focused on our asset allocation views, but no doubt the Silicon Valley Bank saga will require more attention from investors in the days ahead.

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No Landing = No Sense | Weekly Market Commentary | March 6, 2023

Suggesting an economy makes “no landing” makes no sense. Analogies eventually break down, especially this one. Economic activity does not stop like an airplane eventually does, but rather the economy will settle into a steady state where growth is consistent with factors such as population and productivity. Here we take a look at some factors that illustrate how the economy is struggling to find a stable growth path.

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Debt Ceiling Primer | Weekly Market Commentary | February 27, 2023

While concerns about the debt ceiling have been increasing, markets, businesses, and the economy are likely to see only minimal impact until we are days, or maybe a few weeks, from the “x date,” the date on which the federal government will no longer be able to meet all its obligations, likely in the summer or early fall.

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